From steam engines to smartphones, each revolutionary shift has redefined our lives, only to become another stepping stone in humanity’s endless transformation. As AI has us dreaming big again, we’re left to wonder: Have we been here before?
Society-shaking innovations were once so rare we called them revolutions, and revolutions they were. The agricultural revolution, the scientific revolution, the industrial revolution – these were all tectonic shifts that changed the course of humanity. On their heels came steam, electricity, planes, cars, and atom splitting. Once solid-state transistors put radios in our pockets, the pace of revolution exploded, doubling in step with semiconductor speeds.
The revolutions came so fast and so often – the PC, the web, smartphones, cloud computing – we downgraded them to transformations. But since the launch of ChatGPT, revolutionary fervor is back in vogue. AI, specifically generative AI, is the biggest thing since electrification. Either that or Skynet is about to become sentient and kill us all. It depends on whom you ask.
What’s a business owner, a CIO, a plain old individual supposed to do? Does every business need a multi-million dollar GPU array? Will AI replace designers, developers, and radiologists? Should we really take our hands off the wheels of our self-driving cars just because a commercial says we should? I’m not so sure. If we take a long view, the AI revolution is following the same hype cycle we’ve seen with other technological innovations. AI transformations pose age-old risks and offer predictable outcomes – not in specific detail, but in a broad outline. AI won’t exactly repeat history, but its development will surely rhyme with the revolutions that came before.
Transformations follow patterns
If we look closely at transformations – from revolutions to simple change – we’ll find some basic forms. There are forced transformations in which an external agent changes reality. Evolutionary transformations happen gradually as small changes accrue over time. And finally, there is intentional transformation when someone has a goal and makes it happen. Businesses face all three categories, sometimes even at the same time. Understanding how these transformations work is key to making the best possible decision.
Forced transformations can be instantaneous and catastrophic or slow-moving and manageable. Sudden changes – an earthquake, an accident, a carbon tax – demand quick reactions. A steadily growing drought or a slowly rising cost of living give you a chance to pack up and move.
Evolutionary transformations roll out in waves of small changes, breakthroughs, and adaptations. Homo sapiens’ economic and social shift from hunting and gathering to farming, city-states, and YouTube influencers has taken millennia, and it’s not done yet. There are still people living free from the plow and timecards in parts of the Arctic, Indian Ocean, Africa, and the Amazon…although Starlink may be their final fall.
Most unforced social, economic, and behavioral transformations have been evolutionary. Small innovations create benefits (or handicaps) that get absorbed over generations. We transform without realizing we’ve changed.
Running alongside forced change and evolution is intentional transformation. Someone (or a few someones) sees a need, discovers a new phenomenon, or just has an idea out of the blue. Then they work their butts off to make something out of it. We like to think intentional transformation is a recent achievement, but common sense and archeology tell us otherwise.
The shipbuilders of Carthage were mass-manufacturing with uniform parts – complete with instructions like insert tab A into slot B – during the First Punic War (264-241 BCE). Twenty-two centuries later, Henry Ford “invented” the assembly line. Intentional, breakthrough innovations didn’t begin with fire, and they won’t end with AI.
In the last two centuries, the time it takes a transformation to play out has shrunk from centuries (industrial manufacturing) and decades (telecommunications) to years and months (social media).
In many cases, the combination of evolutionary and intentional transformation is a very effective engine. Inventive people experiment, succeed, and fail, while the rest of us cherry-pick the winning ideas and put them to work. The process unfolds in a virtuous feedback loop that has gotten faster and more effective over time. In the last two centuries, the time it takes a transformation to play out has shrunk from centuries (industrial manufacturing) and decades (telecommunications) to years and months (social media).
However, be warned: there is a troubling subset of intentional transformation – junk transformation. Junk transformations happen when underbaked ideas, inept teams, and/or straight-up fraudsters pitch a pile of hype in place of valuable improvement.
No one is immune from junk transformations. Individuals, mom-and-pop businesses, and mighty corporations fall for them over and over. How does it happen? Let’s take a ride in my beat-up old car and find out.
A transformation out of tune
My daily driver is a 25-year-old station wagon with fading paint, scuffed bumpers, and the original factory stereo – an ingenious device with buttons, knobs, and a monochrome LCD. I can change stations, browse six CDs, and even play a cassette (!) – all by touch at 70 miles an hour.
Our other car has an after-market stereo, a sexy-looking thing that can change colors, place a call, and stream whatever my phone can share. Everything is controlled by a single, multi-directional knob. Think second-gen iPod meets a mushroom. Brilliant! And completely useless.
Every interaction requires eyes on the device. Basic tasks are buried in menus. Turning it on and off is a guessing game. The only thing you can do safely while driving is change the volume. Anything more advanced is up to the passenger.
This revolutionary stereo completely transforms the car audio experience. It also destroys any driver’s ability to use it safely. That shiny layer of chrome is wrapped around a wreck waiting to happen.
Most junk transformations are not intentionally malicious. They’re what happens when a team of tech-smitten engineers, inexperienced designers, and data-driven marketers get free reign to push the paradigm.
Junk transformations can be very seductive – they look and feel like progress, right? That’s a major reason they show up in practically every user experience. Plus, they’re easy and relatively cheap. Slap a layer of JavaScript widgets and sleek design (no skeuomorphic elements, please) on an app or a website, and voila! A beautiful new product. But, if you don’t do the hard work of making the underpinnings make sense, you’ll end up with a business-destroying labyrinth.
Most junk transformations, like my “modern” car stereo, are probably not intentionally malicious. They’re what happens when a team of tech-smitten engineers, inexperienced designers, and data-driven marketers get free reign to push the paradigm. Sadly, there are players in the transformation game who knowingly make false promises – magic platforms that do everything, SEO miracles, NFTs with near-infinite upsides.
No matter what’s driving a junk transformation, it can definitely reinvent your business, just not in any of the ways you want.
Evolution, revolution, or junk – what will AI bring?
So, what will AI, our latest, greatest, most-revolutionary-est innovation, bring to the world? In all honesty, it will be – and already is – all of the above. Rapid adoption and competitive pressure are forcing transformation on individuals, businesses, and governments. We are already changing, whether we like it or not.
The virtuous feedback loop between intentional and evolutionary transformation is spinning at full speed. Every release from first movers like OpenAI, Meta, and Google cascades instantly through innovators and early adopters. We all get to harvest the winning applications, including the fraudsters and hacks who repackage them to make a fast buck.
How can businesses sift good AI opportunities from the bad? Separate hype and hope? With a little historical perspective and a lot of common sense. We’ve been here before, and we know the rules – even with tech like AI that promises to break them all.
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If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
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Give things time to mature. At the current pace, a few months of AI innovation can save millions in the long run.
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Be intentional and stay focused on the transformations your business needs to succeed rather than hype and speculation.
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Work with partners that build value for your business.
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Seek the experience, wisdom, and guidance of people who are a few steps ahead on the paths you’re considering.
The hype, speed, and incredibly high hopes surrounding AI can make you giddy, and that’s ok. Experiment with AI, play with it, learn about it. But when your career is at stake or you’re thinking of betting a business on AI’s game-changing claims, remember: we’ve been here before and we’ll be here again.
Know your business. Know yourself. And get to know partners who navigated revolution after revolution, from Web 1.0 and 2.0 to mobile, blockchain, and generative AI.
Ben Thompson is a writer, creative, and strategist with a knack for sifting clarity from the messy complexities of tech, politics, and life. He’s been nominated for an Emmy, won some Tellys, and maintains an excellent strain of sourdough. He lives in Colorado Springs with his wife Ann and two completely spoiled mutts.
